Daily Digest: Monday 18th March
USA
Index futures led gains into the session signalling a positive turn in investor sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) rose 0.99% to 17,985.01 once again eyeing the 18,000 level, while the S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 0.63% to 5,149.42 and the Dow ($INDU) rose 0.2% to 38,790.43. This momentum comes as traders await Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, with the general consensus amongst analysts being that rates will be held at 5.5%.
After last week’s acquisition of Darwin AI, Apple ($AAPL) has continued to lean in to speculation over the direction of its AI program, entering talks with Google over the integration of its Gemini software across Apple devices. The lack of a generative AI product has been somewhat of a bugbear for investors following February earnings call, meaning news of a potential partnership boosted share performance through Monday. AAPL shares rose 0.64% through the session while Google’s parent company Alphabet ($GOOGL) share rose 4.63%.
This news comes as Nvidia’s ($NVDA) four day general conference kicks off, at which CEO Jensen Huang is expected to unveil the next generation of innovative Nvidia chips the B100. In anticipation of the event shares reached intraday highs of $924, before pulling back to $884.55, marking a 0.7% gain through the session.
Europe
The FTSE 100 (FTSE) closed at a loss for the third consecutive session, falling 0.063% to 7,722.55. Trading was somewhat subdued as markets await the Feds rate decision later this week.
Final Eurozone CPI figures fell in line with market expectations, CPI was 2.6% between January 2023 and January 2024, sitting 0.6 percentage points above the ECBs 2% inflation target. The STOXX 600 (€SXXP) fell 0.17% to 503.94, while the DAX fell 0.022% to 17,932.68, and CAC (€FCHI) fell 0.2% to 8,148.14.
Vladimir Putin has won Russia’s presidential elections with the ballot concluding on Sunday, having received over 87% of public votes, launching his fifth term. The election doesn’t speak volumes for market direction, as there was an almost certainty amongst analysts of the outcome of the nations ‘democratic’ election process.
Rest of the World
The Nikkei 225 (¥N225) had its strongest session in over a week, rising 2.67% to 39,740.44, as traders await Tuesday’s BOJ rate decision. Strong equity performance suggests a restoration of confidence amongst investors toward Japanese corporates, against the headwind of rate hikes, which typically indicate the slowdown of an economic cycle. In terms of FX, the Yen continued to sell-off, weakening further against the dollar to 149.14 by 13:45 (GMT), erasing almost two weeks of gains. Today’s FX and equity price action is almost inverse to theoretical expectations of market activity when faced with rate hikes, though any noise should be cleared through tomorrow’s session following the rate decision, providing a clearer picture of direction for analysis.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (¥SSE) continued to rally, rising 0.99% to 3,084.93.
Cryptocurrencies
The total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies is now around $2.52 trillion, having fallen from $2.77 trillion last week. Bitcoin struggled to gain any upward momentum through trading hitting a strong resistance at $69,000 which pushed prices as low as $66,000. By 9pm GMT, prices had fallen some 1.33% from the same time on Sunday. Altcoins performance was mostly poor with Cardano falling 3.51% and Ethereum falling 3.45%, while Solana and Avalanche were the only high cap altcoins to record 24hr price increases rising 1.68% and 10.65% respectively.
Commodities
Crude continued to trade upwards through Monday, with prices pushed higher by positive demand signals from China, and a continuation of supply side struggles exacerbated by a weak geopolitical backdrop. Chinese data prints indicated positive growth in economic activity, consumer spending, and output, measures which until now have dragged crude prices lower so far this quarter. Meanwhile, the extent of damage to Russian oil refineries last week has been priced in, with Eastern European output reduced as a result of Ukrainian attacks last week. Prices now sit 2.17% at $82.80 per barrel.
Gold traders exercised caution through the session as they await this week’s FOMC decision, prices traded within a tight range, rising 0.08% to $2,163.20 per ounce by 9pm GMT.
What to Watch
BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
BOJ Interest Rate Decision
Earnings:
Tencent ($TME)
Sources:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/world-indices/
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/commodities
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100
https://www.binance.com/en-GB/price/bitcoin
https://www.binance.com/en-GB/price/ethereum
https://qontigo.com/index/sxxp/
Stock Market Activity Today & Latest Stock Market Trends | Nasdaq
https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?week=mar10.2024
Definitions:
YoY - Year on Year, or, Year over Year
MoM - Month on Month, or, Month over Month
QoQ - Quarter on Quarter, or, Quarter over Quarter
ECB - European Central Bank
BOJ - Bank of Japan
Fed - Federal Reserve
BOE - Bank of England
CPI - Consumer Price Index
PPI - Purchasing Price Index
ETF - Exchange Traded Fund