The Week in Review: 9th-15th September
A Quick Update
As you may have noticed, the site hasn’t changed all that much since June, as I’ve been away completing my MSc in Investments at the University of Birmingham. The past two months have been largely consumed by exams and writing my dissertation, which was a study of the performance of Chinese equity IPOs on US markets between 2010 and 2024. Now that my studies are complete, my focus will return to markets, BASAAHP, and managing my personal trading accounts, complementing the graduate job hunt.
My weekly coverage of the swing trade account will resume from the last updates posted toward the end of April and I aim to increase transparency on the portfolio’s positioning going forward. Earlier this year, the main focus of the accounts trading activity were UK interest rates with trades executed using UK property developers and banks. Therefore, prior to June, all trades were taken on LSE listed equities, namely, HSBC, Barratt, NatWest, Taylor Wimpey, and Persimmon. As I had expected my academic commitment to take priority, I wound down the majority of the accounts open equity positions, while limiting any new exposure. As this was the case I only carried a single trade May/June through to September consisting of six positions in UK-listed HSBC shares.
Toward the end of July, I began to gradually increase equity exposure, shifting focus from the LSE into US markets, adopting a strategy targeting big tech firms trading outside of their perceived ‘fair values’. This led to the addition of Apple and Nvidia into the swing portfolio, the performance of which is covered below. In the last week, two of the five Nvidia positions were closed with a net gain of 5.75%, while the single position in Apple was closed with a net gain of 7.95%. Heading into a new trading week, this leaves the remaining three Nvidia positions and six HSBC positions open.
Swing PnL
Weekly Recap
Kamala Harris Vs President Trump
Interest toward November’s US election has spiralled following Tuesday’s face-off between Republican nominee President Trump and the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. The debate marked the first, and possibly last showdown between the two candidates before voting, as the pair return to their respective campaign trails. Despite widespread questioning over the ability of Harris to handle a seasoned and media trained President Trump, the democrat nominee soared in post debate polls. ABC, the debate host, enforced stricter rules on timing and interjections, while also offering live fact-checking preventing the use of misinformation. Trump appeared to remain his own worst enemy, exposing himself to a number of easy personal attacks, while occasionally falling on the wrong side of the fact-checking mediators. Playground politics aside, both candidates lacked any real substance when pushed for their positions on the key issues of contention for the 2024 election, including immigration, reproductive rights (abortion), national security and foreign policy. While the debate is unlikely to be election-defining, the contest has demonstrated that a Republican victory is far from guaranteed, contrasting the expectations analysts had toward President Biden’s re-election bid.
US CPI
Wednesday’s US CPI print showed that inflation rose by 0.2% MoM in August, while YOY data indicated inflation at 2.5%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the YOY rate seen in July. Data alludes to the success and effectiveness of the seemingly ‘cautious’ approach adopted by Fed officials regarding early rate cuts, especially as the ECB, SNB, and BOE have all moved to lower rates. Annual US inflation now sits only 0.5 percentage points above the central bank’s target. As pressure from market participants persist, this print will likely push the Fed toward cutting rates earlier than the initially expected December, potentially at the Fed’s September or November meets.
ECB Rate Decision
Thursday marked the conclusion of the ECB’s sixth monetary policy meeting of 2024 with policymakers choosing to continue the rate-cutting cycle, in line with analyst expectations. The deposit rate was cut by a further 25 basis points or 0.25% to 3.5%, following an identical 25 basis point move in June. The ECB’s updated inflation predictions now expect the prevailing Eurozone inflation rate dipping below the 2% level during the fiscal year 2026.
ECB President Lagarde’s positions seems to have remained dovish, signalling to market participants that a further cut to the deposit rate should not be ruled out at one of the ECB’s final meetings of 2024, in October or more likely December. An additional cut would mark the central bank’s third rate reduction, further stimulating Eurozone economic activity.
What to Watch Next Week:
Monday 16th September
Rightmove HPI (MoM)Tuesday 17th September
US Core Retail Sales (MoM)Wednesday 1st May
UK CPI (YoY)
US Fed Monetary Policy Meet (September)
US Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Statement
US Crude Inventories
US Earnings:
General Mills - $GISThursday 2nd May
BOE Monetary Policy Meet
UK Interest Rate Decision
BOE Monetary Policy Statement
US Unemployment Claims
US Earnings:
FedEx - $FDXFriday 3rd May
BOJ Monetary Policy Meet
Japanese Interest Rate Decision
BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
UK Retail Sales (MoM)
Sources:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/world-indices/
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/commodities
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100
https://www.binance.com/en-GB/price/bitcoin
https://www.binance.com/en-GB/price/ethereum
https://qontigo.com/index/sxxp/
Stock Market Activity Today & Latest Stock Market Trends | Nasdaq
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#market-cap
https://www.forexfactory.com
ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Definitions:
YoY - Year on Year, or, Year over Year
MoM - Month on Month, or, Month over Month
QoQ - Quarter on Quarter, or, Quarter over Quarter
ECB - European Central Bank
BOJ - Bank of Japan
Fed - Federal Reserve
BOE - Bank of England
SNB - Swiss National Bank
DOJ - Department of Justice
PnL - Profit and Loss